精算数学是一门应用科学,于财务和保险行业应用数学和统计方法,主要用来评估长期风险。精算涵盖了数个相关领域,尤其是数学的概率论和统计。传统的精算重点在分析死亡率,制作生命表,和应用利息理论。现代精算用到了高等随机数学模型,比如精算分布、随机过程、随机微积分,对各种经济活动中未来的风险进行分析,评估和管理,是现代保险、金融、投资实现稳健经营的基础。精算学在17世纪末期成为一门正式的数学学科。精算起源
在古代社会中,生存能力较弱的人,如病人、残疾人士、长者、穷人等一般无法从社会中取得应有的保护,当时他们主要靠社会中仅有的慈善活动以求存活,不同的宗教组织或邻舍也会把有需要人士及贫穷的人集中在一起照顾。到了公元三世纪中叶,单是罗马城里的慈善活动便养活了1,500名病人。然而,依靠慈善事业而来的资源供应并不稳定,而且接受捐献者在社会往往被视为等次较低的人,甚至会被大众边缘化,因此在公元五世纪,社会开始出现一些互相帮助的协议及类似补助金的共同基金。罗马帝国建立初期,一些为殓葬开支而设的协会逐渐成立,协会成员需于初期缴付一笔会费,及定期缴付少量金钱以维持协会运作。积累的金钱成为公积金,用于丧葬的补助费,此乃人寿保险的鼻祖。不幸的是,这些补助组织往往会因为对死亡、疾病等认知不足而无法长久运作。萌芽期
十七世纪的英、法、德等欧洲国家,在数学方面有极大进展,当中多种新数理概念可谓推动了一场数学革命。同时,人类对以科学方法来计算自身面对的风险的需求急剧增加。除此以外,人类开始研究复利效应,与此同时,机率论也随着数学知识的增加而浮现。1662年,一位名叫约翰.格兰特的伦敦布商发现,尽管每个人的寿命及死亡率皆无法确定,某些类别的人的寿命却是可预期的。这一发现成了精算生命表的始祖,现时几乎所有保险计划的保费计算也是基于这个原理。爱德蒙.哈利是首个向公众示范如何利用这原理,较为准确地计算每位被判断为同类的人应缴的费用,以求整个类别的人在离世是可分别得到同额的补助金。除此以外,哈利在1693年示范了如何计算某年龄人士的生命年金保费。早期的精算师
1762年,作为Society for Equitable Assurances on Lives and Survivorship的始创者及支柱之一,占士.杜臣于计算定额保费为精算界贡献良多,而该公司亦屹立至今天(虽然早前曾遇上财务困境)。它不但是首间利用科学方法计算长期寿险保费的公司,同时其首席执行官也是首个为计算保费的人冠上“精算师”衔头的人。接下来的二百年,大量人寿保险公司及退休基金成立,也是使用相同原理及方法经营人寿保险业务。至于早期没有利用数理方法协助经营的公司,大多落得倒闭的下场,剩下的也被迫接受占士.杜臣首创的方法,方可继续经营保险业务。科技发展
十八至十九世纪时,纵然计算保费异常繁复,由于计算工具有限,精算师往往只能靠双手计算。当时精算师为使计算尽量变得简单,遂引入了一些近似值方法,建构简明易用,但却更为准确的生命表。与此同时,不少支援精算师及精算学的组织纷纷成立,通过保证精算师的工作水平、能力和道德水平来保护受保众的利益。尽管如此,计算过程仍然复杂无比,而所谓的“捷径”只是平平无奇的算术小技,对精算发展无甚帮助。即使到了二十世纪初期,非寿险精算师也继续步上寿险精算师的后尘,仅是1920年计算工人补偿一项工作,便花了一组日以继夜地工作的精算师共两个月时间。
三十年代始,随机过程的数学基础被确立,严密的统计模型让精算师预测随机事件导致的损失,并放弃使用决定论方法。人类发明计算机后,精算学的发展更如革命般大幅推进,从前用纸笔运算的日子已不复再,取而代之的是五花八门的计算工具。随着电脑工业的发展,精算师的预测能力以几何级数上升,昔日的知识已不敷应用,精算师必须与时并进才能继续生存。
按照时间排序Lundberg,On Random Processes and and their Application to Sickness and Accident Statistics,1940 (被引用次数:211)Bühlmann,Mathematical methods in risk theory,1970 (被引用次数:999)Gerber, An Introduction to Mathematical Risk Theory,1979 (被引用次数:1115)FSA Dick London,The Revision of Estimates,1985 (被引用次数:102)M.J. 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Kaas, Modern Actuarial Risk Theory -- Using R. 2008 (被引用次数:556)Schmidli,Stochastic Control in Insurance,2008(被引用次数:142)Tse ,Nonlife Actuarial Models Theory:Methods and Evaluation,2009(被引用次数:20)Rolski,Stochastic processes for insurance and finance,2009 (被引用次数:203)Mikosch, Non-Life Insurance Mathematics- An Introduction With The Poisson Process, 2009(被引用次数:190)Sundt,Recursions for Convolutions and Compound Distributions with Insurance Applications,2009 (被引用次数:24)Corazza, Mathematical and Statistical Methods for Actuarial Sciences and Finance,2011(被引用次数:2)Asmussen, Ruin Probabilities. 2nd Edition 2010(被引用次数:1317)Ohlsson, Non-Life Insurance Pricing with Generalized Linear Models,2010(被引用次数:20)Herzog, T.N. Introduction to Credibility Theory (Fourth Edition), 2010 (被引用次数:84)Cipra,Financial and Insurance Formulas,2010(被引用次数:10)Wèuthrich,Market-consistent actuarial valuation,2010 (被引用次数:71)Schoutens , Levy processes in credit risk,2010 (被引用次数:30)Korn,Monte Carlo Methods and Models in Finance and Insurance,2010(被引用次数:42)中国精算师资格考试用书《精算模型》:肖争艳主编,孙佳美主审,中国财政经济出版社,2010年版中国精算师资格考试用书《寿险精算》:张连增主编,李晓林主审,中国财政经济出版社,2010版中国精算师资格考试用书《非寿险精算》:韩天雄主编,刘乐平主审,中国财政经济出版社,2010版杨洋,保险风险管理中的破产渐近分析:重尾分布,2010Casualty Actuarial Society,Foundations of Casualty Actuarial Science (Fourth Edition), 2001Melnikov,Risk Analysis in Finance and Insurance,2011(被引用次数:46)Promislow,Fundamentals of Actuarial Mathematics,2011(被引用次数:51)Cunningham, R.J., Models for Quantifying Risks, Fourth Edition,2011(被引用次数:8)孟生旺,非寿险精算学(第2版) ,2011Haimes,Risk modeling, assessment, and management,2011(被引用次数:721)Olivieri,Introduction to Insurance Mathematics: Technical and Financial Features of Risk Transfers,2011 (被引用次数:6)Koller,Life Insurance Risk Management Essentials , 2011(被引用次数:2)Roeser,Handbook of Risk Theory Epistemology, Decision Theory, Ethics, and Social Implications of Risk,2012 (被引用次数:2)Koller,Stochastic Models in Life Insurance,2012 (被引用次数:3)吴岚,风险理论,2012肖争艳,精算模型,2013Gray,Risk Modelling in General Insurance From Principles to Practice,2012(被引用次数:3)Stuart A. Klugman,Loss models further topics,2013 (Loss model的学术版本)Dickson, C.M.D., Actuarial Mathematics for Life Contingent Risks,2ed 2013(被引用次数:48)Khmaladze ,Statistical Methods with Applications to Demography and Life Insurance,2013Wüthrich, Financial Modeling Actuarial Valuation and Solvency in Insurance,2013 (被引用次数:7)Kyprianou,Gerber–Shiu Risk Theory,2013 (被引用次数:1)Lukasz Delong ,Backward Stochastic Differential Equations with Jumps and Their Actuarial and Financial Applications: BSDEs with Jumps ,2013Bølviken,Computation and Modelling in Insurance and Finance,2014
附:1991-2006精算和风险类顶级期刊影响因子
1991-2006精算和风险类顶级期刊影响因子Relative Impact of Risk, Insurance, and Actuarial Journals(Insurance Impact Factor---Period from 1991 to 2000)一、风险与保险类排名Risk and Insurance Journals Insurance Impact Factor Citations RankJournal of Risk and Insurance 2.3549 1Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 1.2266 2Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Theory 0.9490 3Journal of Insurance Regulation 0.8238 4Journal of Insurance Issues 0.4078 5CPCU Journal 0.4035 6Risk Management and Insurance Review 0.3220 7Geneva Papers on Risk and 0.2896 8Insurance Issues and PracticeJournal of Financial Services Professionals 0.2149 9Benefits Quarterly 0.0880 10二、精算期刊排名Actuarial Journals Insurance Impact Factor Citations RankAstin Bulletin 1.8714 1Insurance: Mathematics and Economis 1.6005 2Scandinavian Actuarial Journal 1.5410 3British Actuarial Journal 1.3784 4North American Actuarial Journal 1.0873 5Journal of Actuarial Practice 0.2366 6